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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 04:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.2, -68.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 31
2016-09-05 04:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 68.5W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west and south of Fire Island Inlet, west of Port Jefferson, and west of New Haven. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 68.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northwestward motion on Monday. A northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength through Monday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area on Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly offshore through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday night. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 31
2016-09-05 04:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050254 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON...AND WEST OF NEW HAVEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR * NEW HAVEN TO SAGAMORE BEACH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 68.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 280SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 68.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 68.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.9N 68.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 160SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.7N 69.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.2N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.8N 69.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 40.6N 67.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 42.5N 63.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 68.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-05 01:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 23:55:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:06:35 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 01:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.2, -68.5 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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