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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 30A
2016-09-05 01:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 042354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 68.5W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fenwick Island to Sagamore Beach * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 68.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northwestward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain at or near hurricane strength for the next day or so, and begin to gradually weaken by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours on the North Shore of Long Island east of Flushing and on the south shore of Long Island east of Rockaway Inlet. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rehoboth Beach, DE to Montauk Point, NY including the North Shore of Long Island east of Flushing...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly offshore through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday night. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 23:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:55:42 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 23:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:55:42 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-04 23:10:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:00:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:06:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-09-04 22:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042055 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 Satellite images continue to show that practically all of the deep convection continues to occur well to the north and northeast of the low-level center of the cyclone. This indicates that Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 60 kt based on continuity from the previous aircraft data. Another Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The intensity trends shown by the global models suggest that a weakening trend should begin in 24 hours or so, and this is reflected in the latest official forecast. Visible satellite images show that the center has continued to track farther east than previous estimates, and the motion is a rather uncertain 070/4 kt. A shortwave trough is approaching Hermine from the west, and the associated vorticity is predicted to move just to the south of the post-tropical cyclone within the next day or so. This should cause Hermine to turn toward the north and northwest while moving rather slowly over the next 24-48 hours. After that time, Hermine should begin to move east-northeastward within the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, with the former model much farther east than the latter one. The forecast for Hermine has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Although the NHC forecast track has been shifted eastward today, there is still a threat of tropical storm conditions, coastal flooding and large waves along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 37.2N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/0600Z 37.9N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/1800Z 38.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/0600Z 39.1N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 06/1800Z 39.6N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/1800Z 40.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/1800Z 43.5N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch
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