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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-04 19:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.2, -69.3 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 29A
2016-09-04 19:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041744 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 69.3W ABOUT 300 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Charles Light to west of Watch Hill * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 69.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow north-northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to be at or near hurricane strength during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours from Cape Charles, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut, including Long Island. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina sounds and northern Outer Banks...1 to 2 feet Cape Charles to Chincoteague, VA...2 to 4 feet Chincoteague, VA to Atlantic City, NJ...3 to 5 feet Atlantic City to Sandy Hook, NJ...2 to 4 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT including Long Island...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 18:07:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 16:07:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-09-04 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041448 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 Hermine continues to have the structure of a post-tropical cyclone, with practically all of the deep convection well removed to the north-northeast of the center. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured peak surface winds near 60 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. Since the cyclone is over warm waters and the vertical shear may decrease somewhat during the next couple of days, some partial transition back to a tropical cyclone is possible. However, this is not explicitly indicated in the official forecast. In any event, the intensity of the system should be at or near hurricane force over the next 48 hours or so. Based on center fixes from the aircraft, the initial motion is 060/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric short wave trough will approach Hermine within the next day or so, and the global models forecast this vorticity maximum to merge with Hermine. This interaction is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move northeastward, then northward, and then north-northwestward during the next 36 hours or so. Since the center has already moved a little to the east of the previous track, the official forecast has been adjusted eastward. Later in the forecast period, the system should move east-northeastward, and away from the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is somewhat to the west of the latest multi-model consensus. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 37.2N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 37.6N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/1200Z 38.3N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/0000Z 38.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 06/1200Z 39.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/1200Z 42.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-04 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 14:45:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 14:39:32 GMT
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