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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-07-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 361 FOPZ13 KNHC 281432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 6 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-28 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 08:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 09:27:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-07-28 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 640 WTPZ43 KNHC 280835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Gilma continues to be affected by strong westerly vertical shear, with the low level center remaining exposed to the northwest of an area of weakly banded convection. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 30 kt. The initial motion is 280/11. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue steering the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three days with some decrease in forward speed. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies a little to the north of the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The ongoing shear is due to an upper-level trough just to the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. The dynamical models suggest that this trough will move westward in close proximity to Gilma, which will allow the shear to continue. In addition, the cyclone should be moving into a drier airmass during the next several days. These factors should cause Gilma to weaken and eventually dissipate during the forecast period even though it will stay over warm water. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous forecast, and it now calls for Gilma to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 15.1N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 15.4N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 16.4N 139.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 16.5N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-07-28 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 024 FOPZ13 KNHC 280834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-28 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 the center of Gilma was located near 15.1, -132.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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