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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-07-28 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 372 WTPZ43 KNHC 282032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Increasing westerly shear is taking its toll on Gilma. Deep convection that has been persisting on the eastern side of the system has become farther separated from the center, with an exposed low-level swirl centered more than 75 n mi from the edge of the convection. Although the system appears to be a little weaker than earlier today, there is no scatterometer data to confirm that. Therefore, the initial wind speed has been held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Westerly shear of about 30 to 35 kt is expected to continue during the next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma passes west of the axis of an upper-level trough tonight. The combination of these hostile winds aloft, cooler SSTs, and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually weaken, and the NHC forecast now shows Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours and degenerating into a trough by day 4. Gilma could become a remnant low even sooner than currently forecast, as the unfavorable upper-level flow to the west of the upper trough axis could completely shear off the deep convection from the center. The depression made a jog to the northwest during the day today, but it is expected to resume a west to west-northwestward motion at around 10 kt through tonight, steered by mid-level ridging to the north. Thereafter, as the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn to the west, steered by low-level ridging to its northwest. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous forecast, and it is close to the clustering of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.8N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 16.3N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 15.7N 145.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-07-28 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 991 FOPZ13 KNHC 282031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA ENCOUNTERING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 the center of Gilma was located near 15.8, -134.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 9
2018-07-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 359 WTPZ33 KNHC 282031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 ...GILMA ENCOUNTERING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 134.3W ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 134.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn to the west over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Gilma is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-07-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 360 WTPZ23 KNHC 282031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 134.3W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 134.3W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.3N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.7N 145.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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