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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-28 16:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 14:33:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 15:28:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-07-28 16:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 708 WTPZ43 KNHC 281432 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Despite being in an environment of strong westerly shear, Gilma is maintaining its status as a tropical cyclone. Deep convection has been persisting on the eastern side of the system, and this activity has even moved a little closer to the center, aided by upper-level diffluence. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. This intensity estimate is a little lower than the 2.5/35 kt ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Westerly shear of about 30 kt is likely to continue during the next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma approaches the Central Pacific basin. These hostile winds aloft combined with cooler SSTs and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually weaken during the next few days. The NHC forecast continues to show Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and degenerating into a trough by day 4, following the trend in the model guidance. The depression is moving westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days as the increasingly shallow system moves within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 the center of Gilma was located near 15.2, -133.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 8
2018-07-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 364 WTPZ33 KNHC 281432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 ...GILMA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 133.0W ABOUT 1485 MI...2395 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 133.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Gilma is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two, and dissipate by the middle of next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-07-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 363 WTPZ23 KNHC 281432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 133.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 133.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 132.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 133.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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