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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 7
2018-07-28 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 868 WTPZ33 KNHC 280833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 ...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 132.4W ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 132.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gilma is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two, and dissipate entirely early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-07-28 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 869 WTPZ23 KNHC 280833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 132.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 132.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.4N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 132.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-28 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 02:38:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 02:38:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-07-28 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 023 WTPZ43 KNHC 280236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The satellite presentation of Gilma has not changed much over the past several hours. Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to affect tropical cyclone, and deep convection is limited to the southeast quadrant of the otherwise exposed low-level circulation. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, but recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest this could be generous. Virtually no change has been made to the track or intensity forecasts. All of the dynamical models indicate that the shear affecting Gilma will increase through the next several days, and the cyclone will be moving into a drier environment. Continued weakening is therefore still forecast, in line with all of the intensity guidance. While the NHC forecast currently shows that Gilma will be a closed low through 72 hours, it is entirely possible that Gilma will dissipate sooner than currently indicated due to the hostile environment. As expected, Gilma has slowed slightly and the initial motion estimate is now 280/13 kt. A continued west to west-northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed is still forecast for the next few days while the shallow depression is steered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the subtropical high to the north-northeast. The NHC forecast remains in close agreement with the various track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 15.0N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.7N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 16.2N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-28 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA HEADING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 the center of Gilma was located near 15.0, -131.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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