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Tropical Storm Gilma Graphics
2018-07-27 10:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Jul 2018 08:33:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Jul 2018 09:25:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 926 WTPZ43 KNHC 270831 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection. Despite the ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center. Based on this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma. The initial motion is 285/14. Gilma should be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States. As the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a more westward motion is expected. The new track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus aids. Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just ahead of the storm for the next couple of days. This evolution is expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity guidance. After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation. The new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement with the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 927 FOPZ13 KNHC 270831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0900 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 8 54(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 130W 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-27 10:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GILMA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 the center of Gilma was located near 14.4, -126.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gilma Public Advisory Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 526 WTPZ33 KNHC 270831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GILMA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 126.7W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1940 MI...3125 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 126.7 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected today and tonight. Gilma should start to weaken Saturday night or Sunday as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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