je.st
news
Tag: gilma
Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-07-27 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 271432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Northwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized cloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and located on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers are only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported tropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT information is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until stronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone. Shear and cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is expected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity consensus trend. Gilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. This steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in track is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP HCCA model and the simple track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-27 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 the center of Gilma was located near 14.9, -128.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Gilma Public Advisory Number 4
2018-07-27 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 287 WTPZ33 KNHC 271432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 ...GILMA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 128.4W ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1825 MI...2935 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 128.4 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue for the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-07-27 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 248 FOPZ13 KNHC 271432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-07-27 16:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 903 WTPZ23 KNHC 271431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] next »