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Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-11-15 09:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150837 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at 30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low later today. The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-15 09:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 the center of Theta was located near 31.8, -18.3 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Theta Public Advisory Number 22
2020-11-15 09:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Theta Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 18.3W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Theta was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A continued slow eastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low later today and could dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-11-15 09:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 150835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-11-15 09:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 18.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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