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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 132038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-13 21:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SATURDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 the center of Theta was located near 31.9, -22.6 with movement E at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SATURDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 22.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 22.6 West. A turn toward the east-southeast along with a slowing of forward speed is expected tonight. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands. However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before reaching those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 31.9N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 23.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 22.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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