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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-11-15 03:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 18.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-11-14 21:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 890 WTNT45 KNHC 142038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta is weakening, which will result in a continued slow east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 31.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-14 21:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 20:37:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 20:37:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-11-14 21:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 142036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 19.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-14 21:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -19.2 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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