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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141456 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 20.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 20.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A sharp northward turn is forecast to occur Sunday night, with that motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 141456 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 141456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-14 09:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 08:37:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 08:37:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-14 09:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 806 WTNT45 KNHC 140836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 Nearly all of the deep convection associated with Theta has dissipated since the previous advisory, with only cold, high cirrus clouds remaining in the northeastern quadrant. A late-arriving 13/2255Z partial ASCAT-C pass indicated a few 35-kt wind vectors were present in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which is consistent the latest TAFB current intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is due east, or 090/08 kt. Theta is expected to move eastward along the northern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, a motion that will also be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. By 36 hours, a much weaker and more vertically shallow Theta is forecast to turn sharply northward ahead of a frontal system. In the 48-72 hour period, the weakening cyclone expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of the front, passing to the north of the Canary Islands this weekend. Theta is forecast to dissipate by 96 hours near the Madeira Island. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN. Strong shear in excess of 35 kt currently affecting Theta is forecast to steadily increase to more than 40 kt by 12 h and beyond. In addition, entrainment of very dry mid-level air should combine with the increasing shear and prevent the reformation of persistent organized deep convection near the center. Although the global models show that some marginal instability is expected to linger through the forecast period, only intermittent small bursts of modest convection away from the center could develop. However, the general trend in the model guidance calls for Theta to slowly spin down, and the official intensity forecast follows that scenario, calling for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low later today, then becoming extratropical before dissipating in 3-4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.0N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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