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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110855 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Convection associated with Theta has decreased further this morning, with strong southwesterly shear displacing the remaining convection to the north of the center. Based on the decreased organization, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt. Theta has continued to slow its forward speed, with the initial motion now 075/7. The cyclone is being steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 72 h or so. After that time, the global models suggest that the cyclone should shear apart, with the remnant low-level circulation moving northeastward on the southeast side of a deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous track. While the cyclone is currently experiencing strong shear, the global models show that this might diminish somewhat during the next 72 h as Theta moves into an area of light winds near an upper-level trough axis. This, combined with sufficient instability for deep convection, should allow the storm to change little in strength during this time. After 72 h, strong mid- to upper-level northerly flow should cause the system to weaken as the convection dissipates and the upper-level portion of the storm is pushed off to the south. The new intensity forecast is lowered a bit from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 29.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-11 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 9:00 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 the center of Theta was located near 29.4, -34.7 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 ...THETA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 34.7W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 34.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 110855 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-11 09:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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