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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-11-12 21:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122045 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 27.4W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 130SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 27.4W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 28.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 27.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-12 15:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 14:46:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 15:31:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-11-12 15:45:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 121445 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 Although the cloud top temperatures across the broad comma-shaped convective shield have warmed this morning, there is some new convection that has been developing nearer to Theta's center over the past few hours. Unfortunately, the scatterometer passes this morning missed sampling the winds near the center of the cyclone. However, the partial ASCAT-A overpass showed that 45 kt winds are occurring nearly 100 n mi to the southwest of the center of Theta. Therefore it is assumed that stronger winds are still occurring closer to the center of the cyclone, and the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt. Theta has now turned to the right, and the initial motion is 080/10 kt. For about the next 36 h, the cyclone is expected to continue moving just north of east around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the day or so, while moving over cooler waters. The counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the guidance through 60 h, and is near the various consensus models thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 31.6N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-12 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 the center of Theta was located near 31.6, -28.8 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 11
2020-11-12 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 121445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 28.8W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 28.8 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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