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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-12 21:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 20:49:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 21:32:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-12 21:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its appearance. Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-11-12 21:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 122046 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-12 21:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -27.4 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 12
2020-11-12 21:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122045 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 27.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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