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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-11-13 03:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 121 WTNT45 KNHC 130252 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 The structure of Theta has been waxing and waning today with moderate convection attempting to wrap around the center, though the coldest cloud tops have been decaying before wrapping fully around. Earlier, there was a 2222 UTC partial ASCAT-B pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt on the south side of Theta. However the highest winds from this instrument the previous two nights were in the southwest quadrant and it is estimated that higher winds may still exist in this quadrant of Theta. For this reason, the latest intensity estimate is only adjusted downward to 50 kt for this advisory. Theta continues to track east at 090/12 kt as the system remains steered by flow along the north side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 h and Theta is forecast to bend to the east-southeast as the cyclone becomes more influenced by mid-level northerly flow associated with an upstream ridge building to the northwest. After 36 h, Theta is expected to slow down significantly as it becomes a shallow cyclone in light low-level flow. Finally, low-level southerly flow ahead of a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to steer Theta's remnant low northeastward by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit southward for the first part of the forecast, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly further south, close to the reliable ICVN consensus. Thus far, Theta has been struggling to produce deep convection that has successfully wrapped around its center. While Vertical Wind Shear is forecast to decrease per ECMWF-SHIPS guidance over the next 12-24 h, it remains to be seen if the current degree of instability is enough for Theta to take advantage of the more conducive wind environment. Thereafter, Vertical Wind Shear increases sharply from the north, importing a much more stable environment over Theta. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the current 50 kt intensity over the next 24 h with weakening forecasted thereafter, in general agreement with the latest intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-11-13 03:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 130250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-13 03:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD... As of 3:00 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -26.0 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 13
2020-11-13 03:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130249 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 ...THETA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 26.0W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 26.0 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to gradually turn toward the east-southeast and slow its forward speed by tomorrow night. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-11-13 03:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 26.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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