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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-05 05:07:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 02:47:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 03:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2013-07-05 04:47:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050246 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 15 28 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 55 48 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 29 23 27 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-05 04:46:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 the center of DALILA was located near 17.3, -111.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 22
2013-07-05 04:46:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ...DALILA EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 111.0W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2013-07-05 04:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050246 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF CONVECTION. DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...AS DALILA MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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