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Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 6
2019-07-23 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 ...DALILA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 117.7W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 117.7 West. Dalila is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur tonight, followed by a movement toward the west-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin by tonight and the Dalila is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-07-23 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-23 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230837 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the cyclone during the past several hours. While the circulation is still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant. Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind speed has been set to 35 kt. Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear, weakening should begin on Wednesday. In a couple of days, SSTs near 24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC intensity prediction is close to the previous one. The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center trying to reform near the strong convection to the south. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion generally toward the northwest by Wednesday. As Dalila weakens, it will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the low-level flow. Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
2019-07-23 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 08:36:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 08:36:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-07-23 10:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230836 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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