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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 27
2013-07-06 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 112.9W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT DALILA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2013-07-06 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 24 28 28 32 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 58 48 45 45 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 16 18 24 26 22 NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 1 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 27
2013-07-06 10:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-06 05:08:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 02:41:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 26
2013-07-06 04:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060240 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DALILA NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATED SINCE ABOUT 18Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...LONG-LASTING DEEP CONVECTION IN DALILA IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE WEAK. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 17.1N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.1N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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