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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2013-07-07 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070251 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION REFORMS SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT. DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST- SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2013-07-07 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070249 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 24 27 39 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 48 40 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 19 24 20 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 15KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-07 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA ALMOST A REMNANT LOW... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of DALILA was located near 16.8, -113.0 with movement E at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 30
2013-07-07 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070249 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...DALILA ALMOST A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 113.0W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DALILA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 30
2013-07-07 04:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070248 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.0W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.0W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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