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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-06 23:08:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 20:37:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2013-07-06 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 DALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THERE IS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS BARELY ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT... AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM HURRICANE ERICK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY. DALILA SHOULD BEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-06 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE TIME... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of DALILA was located near 17.0, -113.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 29
2013-07-06 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...DALILA HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE TIME... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 113.1W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DALILA WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2013-07-06 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 24 27 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 48 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 19 24 27 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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