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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

2017-09-13 16:54:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131454 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 101.7W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 101.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion with a turn to the northeast is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the depression moves inland. Observations from the Mexican Navy indicate that strong gusty winds are already occurring along the coast within the tropical storm watch area. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2017-09-13 16:54:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 131454 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 2 18(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2017-09-13 16:54:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131454 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 100.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 98.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 101.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2016-09-11 04:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has become better organized during the last several hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the low had a well-defined center, and the latest infrared images show enough organized deep convection in a band in the northwestern quadrant declare this system a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB satellite estimate. This is the earliest 16th tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific since 1992. The depression is forecast to be in an environment of light shear, warm waters and a humid mid-level atmosphere for at least a few days. There are no obvious reasons why this cyclone would not intensify, other than a somewhat broad initial wind structure, and guidance is in fairly good agreement on at least gradual strengthening for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity guidance after 24 hours, and this forecast could turn out to be conservative, especially in a few days, if the system develops an inner core. The long range intensity is leveled off due to the uncertainty of what latitude the cyclone will be located at after day 3, which is pretty critical in that portion of the eastern Pacific due to the tight SST gradient. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 310/10. The depression is likely to move generally northwestward for the next couple of days around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. A weakness in the ridge near 120-125 degrees west should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward and decelerate as it enters weaker steering currents near the ridge axis. The weakness is forecast to fill in by all the models on days 4 and 5, and this restrengthened ridge would steer the cyclone generally westward at a faster forward speed near the end of the forecast period. Overall, the models agree on the synoptic scenario, albeit with some timing disagreements. The NHC forecast track is close to the model consensus, which has been an excellent guidance tool to smooth through the along and cross track model differences so far in the 2016 eastern Pacific season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 13.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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