je.st
news
Tag: sixteene
Remnants of SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 5
2015-09-21 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 212038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 ...SIXTEEN-E DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 111.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CABORCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern mainland Mexico, Arizona and New Mexico should monitor the progress of the remnants of Sixteen-E. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Sixteen-E were located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 111.7 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). The system is expected to continue on a north-northeastward track through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast through Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Sixteen-E are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula and the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico. Two to four inches of rain is expected in Arizona and New Mexico. Isolated amounts of 6 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico. One to two inches of rain is expected over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the remnants of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E can be found in public advisories issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center beginning at 8 p.m. PDT under AWIPS header TCPEP1 and WMO header WTPZ31 KWNH and on the web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
remnants
Remnants of SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-21 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 212038 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
speed
wind
probabilities
Remnants of SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-09-21 22:30:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 212030 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 111.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 111.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 111.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
remnants
Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-21 17:14:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 14:40:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 15:06:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
sixteene
Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-21 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 GOES-15 shortwave I/R and first visible images show that the depression made landfall just to the northwest of Bahia Kino in the Mexican state of Sonora. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the subjective intensity estimates and surface observations along the coast of the Gulf of California. Weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves further inland, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area, or possibly dissipate, later today. The depression is moving north-northeastward and a little faster now, about 16 kt, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged toward the multi-model consensus TVCX. The main hazard from the depression continues to be heavy rainfall produced by the deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the surface circulation. The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula, the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora, and Arizona and New Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 29.2N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 31.7N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 34.6N 109.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »