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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-09-21 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210238 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 113.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 113.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-20 23:14:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 20:37:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 21:06:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-20 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 202036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 Recent ASCAT data indicate that the low pressure area off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula has a low-level center located within a 30-45 nm wide area of light winds. This area is small enough to meet the criterion of a well-defined center, and the low is therefore being classified as a tropical depression. The ASCAT data and a recent ship report indicate that the intensity is 30 kt. The depression is located between a mid-level ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-/upper-level cut-off low located well west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern is steering the depression quickly north-northwestward with an initial motion of 345/12 kt. The depression is expected to turn northward soon and continue that heading through 36 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast is very close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF. The depression will be moving across the Baja California peninsula by tonight, and southwesterly shear is expected to increase to near 25 kt in 12 hours and 35-40 kt by 24 hours. Therefore, strengthening is not expected, and the system should remain as a tropical depression while it moves across the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California. The associated deep convection is likely to be sheared away from the center by 36 hours, making the system a remnant low when it moves into southern Arizona. Dissipation is expected by 48 hours. Moisture associated with the depression is expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona during the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 25.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 27.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 30.3N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/0600Z 32.8N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162015)
2015-09-20 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 25.0, -113.7 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-09-20 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 202035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 113.7W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula an extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area in the southwestern United States, including flash flood watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to Mexico, please monitor products issued by the meteorological service of Mexico. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 113.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the central Baja California peninsula tonight, across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern Mexico on Monday, and into southern Arizona Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Monday. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate soon thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora through Tuesday. Moisture from this system is expected to spread northward and produced heavy rains over portions of southern California and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across central portions of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico through Monday, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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