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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 16

2014-10-16 10:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160831 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 68.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 68.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.8N 68.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 45.5N 53.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 52.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics

2014-10-16 07:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 05:38:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 03:05:45 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

2014-10-16 07:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GONZALO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY... ...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Oct 16 the center of GONZALO was located near 25.0, -68.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 15A

2014-10-16 07:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160537 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 200 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 ...GONZALO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY... ...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 68.7W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 63 MPH...101 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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