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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-17 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Oct 2014 08:32:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Oct 2014 08:31:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-17 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING... ...GONZALO LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 17 the center of GONZALO was located near 29.3, -66.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 20
2014-10-17 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 170831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING... ...GONZALO LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 66.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-10-17 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 170831 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 68(71) X(71) X(71) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 17(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 34 92 8(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 34 66(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 7 88(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-10-17 10:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170831 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 66.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 66.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.3N 65.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 63.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.9N 60.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.5N 54.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 300SE 270SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 56.6N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 66.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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