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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-10-16 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 161448 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 19(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 34 X 20(20) 78(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 86(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 68(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-10-16 16:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 161448 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.9N 66.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.6N 64.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 46.5N 50.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 200SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 52.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 68.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-16 13:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 11:57:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 09:05:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-16 13:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWARD AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Oct 16 the center of GONZALO was located near 25.5, -68.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 16A
2014-10-16 13:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161154 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 ...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWARD AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 68.7W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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