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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-16 04:58:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO TURNS NORTHWARD AND AIMS AT BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 15 the center of GONZALO was located near 24.6, -68.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-10-16 04:58:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160258 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014 Although satellite images have recently shown increased organization, aircraft data suggest that Gonzalo has actually slightly weakened. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak flight-level winds of 118 kt and a peak SFMR value of 99 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 105 kt. The plane did report that the concentric eyewall cycle has finished, suggesting that the weakening trend is probably over. Little change in strength is shown for the next 24 hours since the shear expected to be weak or moderate while the hurricane traverses warm waters. Gradual weakening is shown after that time due to the cyclone moving across cooler waters, some of which were upwelled by the recent passage of Fay near Bermuda. The official NHC forecast is a little lower than the previous one, although is on the higher side of the guidance during the first 36 hours. Transition to a post-tropical cyclone is expected in about 72 hours with most of the models showing Gonzalo becoming a large warm-seclusion low. Gonzalo is turning northward as it feels the effects of a strong trough over the eastern United States. There is good agreement on the cyclone moving toward the north-northeast tomorrow and northeast on Friday, accelerating as it is steered by the trough. The NHC forecast virtually unchanged over the first couple of days of the prediction, with most of the models showing Gonzalo near Bermuda in a little over 36 hours. At longer range, the extratropical cyclone should move more to the east-northeast as it moves within the fast mid-latitude flow to the north of a central Atlantic ridge. Only small changes were made to the previous forecast, which ends up being slightly slower at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 24.6N 68.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 25.8N 68.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 28.1N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.7N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 43.8N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0000Z 52.0N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0000Z 55.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 15
2014-10-16 04:58:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160258 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014 ...GONZALO TURNS NORTHWARD AND AIMS AT BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 68.7W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A MORE STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-10-16 04:58:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 160258 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 1(54) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 43(56) X(56) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 15(37) X(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 48(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 62(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-10-16 04:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160258 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 68.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 165SE 165SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 68.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 68.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 25.8N 68.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 43.8N 57.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 55.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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