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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-10-16 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160838 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on the storm's intensity. Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday. After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 25.3N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 26.8N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 29.2N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.9N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 35.3N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 45.5N 53.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0600Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-16 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 16 the center of GONZALO was located near 25.3, -68.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 16
2014-10-16 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160833 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 ...GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 68.7W ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES... AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM... SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-16 10:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 08:32:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 08:31:45 GMT
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-10-16 10:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 160831 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 43(53) X(53) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 9(51) X(51) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 88(93) 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 62(62) 23(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 34(34) 25(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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