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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 19

2014-10-17 04:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170231 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 67.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 67.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.7N 66.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.4N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 42.0N 57.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 300SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 56.5N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics

2014-10-17 01:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 23:46:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Oct 2014 21:04:45 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

2014-10-17 01:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Oct 16 the center of GONZALO was located near 27.4, -67.8 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 18A

2014-10-17 01:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 162344 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 67.8W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SWELLS WILL REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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