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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-10-18 04:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180257 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data, various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in Devonshire Parish. The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on recent ADT values of 97 kt. Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or 030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA. Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of Newfoundland. The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 35.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 41.2N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 47.0N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 57.0N 11.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 23
2014-10-18 04:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180256 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 ...LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 64.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY... AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AND A GUST TO 74 MPH...119 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H AND A GUST TO 119 MPH...191 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/H AND A GUST TO 97 MPH...156 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY ON BERMUDA AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-10-18 04:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 180256 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 69(69) 15(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 25(25) 17(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-18 04:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 02:54:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 02:54:43 GMT
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-10-18 04:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180253 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY... AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 64.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..260NE 320SE 220SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 64.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.2N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 160SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 270SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 140SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 270SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 300SE 400SW 480NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 64.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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