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Tropical Storm GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-10-13 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 131452 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo this morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along with reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern quadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained wind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC. The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. Gonzalo is expected to continue to move west-northwestward today, and turn toward the northwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser Antilles. After that, the mid-level ridge to the north of Gonzalo is expected to break down as a strong mid-latitude trough moving off of the U.S. east and southeast coasts approaches the area north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 72 hours. The weakening ridge will allow Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and then turn toward the northeast and accelerate on Days 4 and 5. The latest NHC model guidance appears to have stabilized and has no longer made any eastward shifts, so the official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, which lies close to a blend of the GFEX and TVCN consensus models. The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has continued to improve, and radar data from Guadeloupe indicates that a small but intense vortex may have passed over Antigua earlier this morning. Overall, the improvement in the horizontal and vertical structure of Gonzalo the past several hours, along with weak vertical wind shear and SSTs greater than 29C, should allow for at least steady strengthening of the cyclone through the next 96 hours. By 120 hours, southwesterly wind shear of around 20 kt is expected to affect Gonzalo, which should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and the SHIPS intensity model. Gonzalo is forecast to be reaching hurricane strength by the time it passes near the British Virgin Islands, and so a hurricane warning is in effect there. Although hurricane conditions are not currently expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the left of the forecast track, or a more rapid strengthening of the storm, would result in the need to extend the hurricane warning into those areas. Interests in the hurricane watch area are reminded that the watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...and in this case within 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.2N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.0N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.8N 66.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.4N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 24.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 31.7N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-13 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 13 the center of GONZALO was located near 17.2, -61.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GONZALO Public Advisory Number 5
2014-10-13 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 131451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * ANGUILLA * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANTIGUA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY WHILE IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ANTIGUA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H AND A GUST TO 88 MPH...142 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-10-13 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 131451 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JUAN 34 2 16(18) 7(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JUAN 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 6 49(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SAINT THOMAS 50 1 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 6 18(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT CROIX 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 50 77 3(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT MAARTEN 64 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUADELOUPE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-10-13 16:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 131450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * ANGUILLA * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 63.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.8N 66.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.4N 67.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.8N 68.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 31.7N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 61.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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