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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-29 04:57:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290256 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 A small area of deep convection continues to fire to the north of the center of the cyclone, with little change in Roslyn during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in accordance with the past ASCAT data. The cyclone should move over progressively cooler water in a strongly sheared and dry environment. Thus, weakening should occur, and the new forecast is an update of the previous one, showing Roslyn decaying to a remnant low in 12 hours. The depression continues moving northward, now at 6 kt. Roslyn should turn northwestward and then westward before dissipation in about 2 days while the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a low-level ridge to the north. The new track forecast is a little slower than and south of the previous one since the latest guidance has trended in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.1N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-09-29 04:55:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290255 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-29 04:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSLYN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 the center of ROSLYN was located near 22.1, -115.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 15
2016-09-29 04:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290254 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...ROSLYN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 115.1W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Roslyn was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 115.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, and a turn toward the west is forecast late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is likely, and Roslyn is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 15
2016-09-29 04:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290254 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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