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Summary for Tropical Depression ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)

2016-09-28 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSLYN WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 the center of ROSLYN was located near 21.0, -115.2 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 13

2016-09-28 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...ROSLYN WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 115.2W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Roslyn was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north and then north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected later on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is likely, and Roslyn is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2016-09-28 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 13

2016-09-28 16:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.2W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.2W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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