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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-09-28 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 The last bit of deep convection dissipated just after the release of the previous advisory, and all that is left is some shower activity displaced well to the northeast of Roslyn's center due to 30-35 kt of southwesterly shear. Recent ASCAT data indicate that the system is still producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the southeastern quadrant, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Continued strong shear and cooler waters should cause the cyclone to gradually spin down during the next couple of days. Since it is unlikely that Roslyn will be able to reproduce organized deep convection, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later today. The global models all suggest that the remnant low will dissipate by day 3, if not sooner. The initial motion is north-northeastward, or 025/8 kt. Roslyn is expected to turn northward later today as it moves around a deep-layer trough extending southwestward from southern California. The shallow, convection-less remnant low should then turn northwestward and west-northwestward by 48 hours, steered by the low-level subtropical ridge. The new official track closely follows the TVCN multi-model consensus, which required an eastward shift from the previous track, primarily during the first 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.2N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 21.2N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 22.2N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)

2016-09-28 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSLYN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 the center of ROSLYN was located near 20.2, -115.5 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 12

2016-09-28 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...ROSLYN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 115.5W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 115.5 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Roslyn is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 12

2016-09-28 10:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0900 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.5W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.5W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.2N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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