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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-09-27 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Roslyn continues to be affected by strong southwesterly shear, with the center of the tropical cyclone exposed to the southwest of the associated deep convection. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory, which is an average of Dvorak estimates of 45 kt and 35 kt, from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Roslyn should slowly weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear, gradually decreasing SSTs, and dry mid-level air that is wrapping around the western portion of the circulation. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and calls for Roslyn to become a remnant low in 36 hours, and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Roslyn is moving northeastward or 045/7 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn northward by tonight around the eastern portion of a mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from a large cut-off low over northwestern Mexico. By late Wednesday, a weaker and more vertically shallow Roslyn is expected to turn northwestward. There is more spread in the track models this morning, but little change was required to the NHC forecast which is located near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.3N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.3N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 22.6N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-27 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSLYN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 27 the center of ROSLYN was located near 18.3, -117.3 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 9
2016-09-27 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 ...ROSLYN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 117.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 117.3 West. Roslyn is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast early Wednesday, followed by a north-northwestward turn Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-09-27 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-09-27 16:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 117.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 117.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.3N 116.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.6N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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