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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-11-09 15:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 091448 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 Satellite images and surface data indicate that Rina has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system is embedded within low stratus clouds, with nippy air temperatures around 45 deg F about a degree to the northwest of the center. Interestingly, despite being over water temperatures around 9 deg C, instability aloft is still producing some elevated deep convection well northeast of the center, though this is not indicative of tropical cyclone status. The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, which is the maximum wind value from a pair of recently received scatterometer passes. The cyclone should move rather rapidly to the northeast and east-northeast over the next day before becoming elongated and dissipating west of Ireland. Little change in strength is anticipated, consistent with the global models. This is the last advisory on Rina. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year, seven of them still had another tropical storm after today's date. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 47.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-09 15:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Nov 9 the center of Rina was located near 47.0, -45.5 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Public Advisory Number 14
2017-11-09 15:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 ...RINA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.0N 45.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1480 MI...2385 KM SW OF REYKJAVIC ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina was located near latitude 47.0 North, longitude 45.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h) and a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected until dissipation tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the low dissipates tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-11-09 15:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 091447 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-11-09 15:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091446 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 240SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 180SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 45.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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