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Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-11-09 03:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 090234 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-11-09 03:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 48.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 260SE 90SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 48.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.7N 46.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 300SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-08 21:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Nov 2017 20:37:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Nov 2017 20:37:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-11-08 21:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082032 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 The only significant change to Rina in the past several hours is the redevelopment of a small area of deep convection near the center. Otherwise, the large cyclone continues to have a somewhat subtropical appearance in satellite imagery, although available microwave data still indicate Rina is best classified as tropical. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today. Rina should lose all deep convection overnight as it moves over very cold waters and is forecast to become a frontal cyclone within 24 hours. Little change in strength is forecast throughout the period, consistent with the global model guidance. The extratropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or west of Ireland by day 3, although some of the guidance isn't clear on exactly when that will occur. Rina continues to accelerate northward, now at about 20 kt. The storm has been interacting with an upper-level low, as seen on water vapor images, which has kept the cyclone a bit west of the previous forecast. However, Rina is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight and accelerate northeastward by Thursday night due to the cyclone leaving the influence of the upper low and entering stronger mid-latitude flow. The models are again west of the previous forecast in the short term, so the new NHC forecast is adjusted to the west, similar to a blend of the latest consensus and corrected consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 40.9N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 44.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 09/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 53.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 55.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-08 21:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 8 the center of Rina was located near 40.9, -48.6 with movement N at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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