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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-09 09:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Nov 2017 08:47:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Nov 2017 08:47:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-11-09 09:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090842 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 It is difficult to depict the presence of a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery. The previous convection near the possible center has become completely detached while the circulation is becoming elongated. In fact, my initial position and intensity are primarily based on continuity. Rina is over very cold waters and a frontal system is rapidly approaching the cyclone, so the NHC forecast calls for Rina to become extratropical during the next 12 hours. Visible images later this morning will probably help to determine the structure of Rina if a cyclone exists by then. Rina or the extratropical low should move fast toward the northeast and then to the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerly flow. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was use in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 44.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 49.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 55.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-11-09 09:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 090840 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-09 09:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Nov 9 the center of Rina was located near 44.5, -47.0 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 13
2017-11-09 09:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090840 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 ...RINA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.5N 47.0W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 47.0 West. Rina is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a significant increase in forward speed is expected today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today and dissipate by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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