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Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-11-08 15:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 081443 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-08 15:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Nov 8 the center of Rina was located near 39.4, -48.7 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 10
2017-11-08 15:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 ...RINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 48.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 48.7 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid northeastward motion on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight before weakening begins on Thursday. Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-11-08 15:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 081442 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..170NE 240SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.2N 47.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 47.1N 44.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 52.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 300SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 360SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-11-08 09:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080851 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 Satellite imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that Rina has taken on a tight comma-cloud appearance, more indicative of a sub-tropical cyclone than a tropical system. Although an eye-like feature has recently developed, it appears to be tilted about 20-30 nmi to the north of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were ST3.0/45-50 kt from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB. Data from a late-arriving, partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass at 0029Z indicated 46-kt surface winds well east of the center, and the cloud pattern has improved since that time. Based these data, the intensity of Rina has been increased to 50 kt. Rina is moving northward or 010/17 kt. Rina is located just north of the axis of a deep-layer ridge, which is located to the east of the cyclone. As a result, a northward to north-northeastward motion is expected for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, a shortwave trough situated to the southwest of Rina should induce acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday, followed by a more rapid motion of 30-35 kt by Thursday night and Friday as westerly flow on the east side of a deep-layer trough captures the system. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted to the west some, but the official forecast track has only been nudged slightly in that direction due to a distinct westward bias noted in the model guidance during the past 48 hours. Although some sight strengthening could occur during the next 6-12 hours, the overall intensity trend is forecast to change little during the period due to the combination of cold SSTs of less than 20 deg C by 18 h and increasing vertical wind shear of more than 35 kt by 36 hours. By 24 h, Rina should become a post-tropical cyclone over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic and become extratropical and merge with a front by 48-72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 37.1N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 39.7N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 43.6N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 09/1800Z 48.7N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 53.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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