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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 6
2017-11-07 15:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 ...RINA MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 49.3W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1315 MI...2110 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 49.3 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. An even faster motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to occur by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-11-07 15:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071445 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 1500 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 49.3W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 160SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 49.3W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 240SE 240SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-07 09:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Nov 2017 08:49:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Nov 2017 08:49:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-11-07 09:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070844 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Rina's overall convective cloud pattern has increased is areal coverage in the eastern semicircle, along with a little more deep convection having developed near the well-defined low-level center. In addition, drifting buoy 41506, located about 40 nmi northwest of the center, reported a pressure of 1011.5 mb at 0600 UTC, and that datum was used to estimate the central pressure of 1009 mb. Satellite classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT remain at T2.5, so the intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory, which could be conservative given the lower central pressure. The initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. As Rina moves around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, the cyclone should continue to accelerate toward the north today and then toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. By 48 hours, Rina is expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate even more toward the northeast over the cold waters of the north Atlantic. The NHC track guidance has shifted a little more to left, so the new official forecast track has also been nudged in that direction, close to consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Based on GOES-16 ice physics satellite imagery, the inner-core of Rina's circulation appears to have tightened up some and has also become better defined. Some modest strengthening is forecast for the next 36 h or so due to some baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching vigorous shortwave trough currently located about 400 nmi to the west. By 48 h, the cyclone will be situated over water temperatures colder than 20 deg C and within an environment of increasing deep-layer wind shear. The combination of those two negative factors are expected is result in Rina becoming an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA intensity consensus model, and also includes input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 33.7N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 37.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 40.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 44.4N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-07 09:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Nov 7 the center of Rina was located near 31.4, -49.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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