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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-11-09 09:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090840 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 47.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 260SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 47.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 49.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 250SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 150SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 55.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 300SE 210SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-09 03:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Nov 2017 02:41:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Nov 2017 02:41:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-11-09 03:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090236 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 A small area of deep convection persists near the center of Rina, likely supported by very cold temperatures aloft and increasing upper-level divergence overcoming SSTs less than 20C. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based largely on continuity from the ASCAT pass earlier today, as the latest ASCAT passes missed much of Rina's circulation. Given the maintenance of deep convection, Rina remains a tropical cyclone, but should not be one for long as vertical shear is expected to increase above 30 kt and SSTs cool below 15C along the forecast track in the next 12 hours. The cyclone should become post-tropical by 12 hours and merge with a frontal zone by 24 hours. Post-tropical Rina should open up into a trough in 36 to 48 hours in the fast westerly flow over the north Atlantic. No change in strength is forecast prior to dissipation, based on global model guidance. Satellite fixes indicate that Rina moved a little to the west of the previous forecast track in the past few hours, but the cyclone now appears to be moving north-northeastward or 020/20. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow, and an even faster east- northeastward motion is expected on Friday prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left and is closer to the ECMWF model in the short range, since that model has best handled the recent motion of Rina. At 24 to 36 hours, the NHC forecast lies to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids. The track, intensity and structure forecasts of Rina during its post-tropical phase have been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 42.5N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 45.7N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 10/0000Z 51.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 55.0N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-09 03:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Nov 8 the center of Rina was located near 42.5, -48.3 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 12
2017-11-09 03:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 ...RINA STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.5N 48.3W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 42.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. Rina is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected on Thursday. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday and dissipate by late Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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