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Remnants of Fernand Graphics
2019-09-05 04:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 02:37:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 02:37:39 GMT
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fernand
Remnants of Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-05 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050234 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Fernand Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Fernand made landfall over northeastern Mexico around 1800 UTC and it has since moved well inland over the very rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains. Based on surface observations and satellite images, it appears that Fernand no longer has a well-defined surface circulation. Therefore, this system does not meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on Fernand issued by NHC. Even though the cyclone has dissipated, its mid-level remnants are expected to continue west-northwestward across northern Mexico during the next few days, producing heavy rains along its path. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information on this rainfall hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Remnants of Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-09-05 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 050233 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS ...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Remnants of Fernand (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-05 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Fernand was located near 25.0, -99.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Remnants of Fernand Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-05 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fernand Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 99.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fernand were located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 99.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days across northern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through early Thursday: Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas...Less than 1 inch additional rainfall, isolated storm totals 15 inches. Central/Southern Nuevo Leon...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches. Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 2 to 5 inches. United States: South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Fernand. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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