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Tropical Storm Fernand Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-04 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 509 WTNT32 KNHC 041432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 97.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 97.3 West. Fernand is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico this afternoon or evening, and move farther inland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves onshore. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to 12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area through this afternoon. Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-04 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 041432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
2019-09-04 13:44:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 11:44:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:31:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fernand (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-04 13:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Fernand was located near 23.5, -97.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fernand Public Advisory Number 5A
2019-09-04 13:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 97.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 1005 MI...160 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 97.2 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves onshore. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area today. Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to 12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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