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Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
2019-09-04 10:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 08:34:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:31:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-09-04 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 040832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 67 4(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) LA PESCA MX 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-04 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040832 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 An ASCAT-C scatterometer pass around 0310 UTC indicated a few wind vectors of 38-40 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Allowing for some undersampling by the instrument, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The overall convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has changed little over the past 6 hours. Fernand's motion is slowly westward at 270/05 kt. Fernand is expected to be steered westward this morning by a broad deep-layer ridge that extends across the entire southern United States, followed by a west-northwestward motion tonight and Thursday. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by this evening, and then dissipate quickly over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies down the middle of track guidance envelope. Fernand has been experiencing moderate easterly to southeasterly vertical wind shear and ingesting dry air in the southeastern semicircle. These unfavorable conditions are forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours, resulting in little if any additional strengthening. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that up to 10 inches of rainfall may have already occurred across portions of northeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 23.1N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fernand (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-04 10:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FERNAND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Fernand was located near 23.1, -96.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-09-04 10:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 96.8W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 96.8W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 96.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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