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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 26

2020-08-03 16:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 031451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS... AND FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS FORM OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET... AND BLOCK ISLAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NORTH OF COBB ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS, INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.1W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.1W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.1N 79.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.2N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 46.7N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.2N 67.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 53.5N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 80.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-03 13:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAIAS PASSING WELL OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 the center of Isaias was located near 30.2, -80.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 25A

2020-08-03 13:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 031152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 ...ISAIAS PASSING WELL OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 80.1W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach * Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then approach the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today. The center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern United States by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past hour a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) was observed at the St, Augustine Pier, Florida, and a sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow station at the Jacksonville Beach Pier, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound, Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through tonight. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in New England beginning late Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches. Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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