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Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-03 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 08:58:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-08-03 10:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 08:57:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 09:24:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-08-03 10:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 Isaias continues to produce an area of vigorous convection near and to the northeast of its low-level center. Overnight radar data from Melbourne and Jacksonville have shown a transient mid-level eye feature that is located northeast of the low-level center. The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew near that feature before departing the storm and found 700-mb flight-level winds of 71 kt, with the highest SFMR winds still around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Isaias within the next several hours. The vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Isaias is forecast to abate slightly today as the storm turns north-northeastward. All of the intensity models shows some slight strengthening during the next 12 hours, and the global models also indicate some deepening. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Isaias to regain hurricane status before the system moves over the coast of the Carolinas. The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coasts of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. After landfall, Isaias is forecast to gradually weaken, but given the fast forward motion of the storm, strong winds are expected to spread northward along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days. Isaias is moving northward or 355/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as before. The tropical storm is expected to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead of a large mid-level trough over the eastern United States during the next couple of days. The dynamical models are in good agreement except for some slight differences in the forward speed of Isaias. The NHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, which have once again trended slightly faster. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning by this evening. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to portions of southern New England through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible across other portions of New England within the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Wednesday. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 4. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 29.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 34.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 44.4N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 48.6N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/0600Z 52.0N 65.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-03 10:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 the center of Isaias was located near 29.7, -79.9 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 25
2020-08-03 10:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 ...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 79.9W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, Delaware Bay, Long Island, and Long Island sound. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Stonington, Maine, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach * Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then approach the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today. The center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern United States by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound, Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through tonight. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in New England beginning late Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches. Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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