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Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-16 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 20:32:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 20:32:16 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-16 22:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 16 the center of Felicia was located near 14.9, -122.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-16 16:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 14:53:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 15:22:39 GMT

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-07-16 16:52:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161452 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Corrected 24-hour forecast position Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the slightly degraded aforementioned convective features. Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (

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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2021-07-16 16:50:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161449 CCA PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 74(75) 19(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 50 X 38(38) 38(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 125W 64 X 10(10) 36(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 61(84) 2(86) 1(87) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 1(54) X(54) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 9(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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