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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-15 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 150850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-15 04:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Jul 2021 02:36:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Jul 2021 03:22:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-15 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150235 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt. Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-15 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 the center of Felicia was located near 15.1, -116.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-15 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.7 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn to the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a west-southwestward motion on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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